Humans love control. We grip the armrest during turbulence as if our fingers can stabilize 200 tons of metal at 30,000 feet. We push elevator buttons harder when we’re impatient, as if force will summon the cab faster. And in markets, we do the same — mistaking inputs for influence.
Traders overestimate their control constantly:
- Clicking refresh on charts every 30 seconds.
- Over-tweaking models as if one more parameter will unlock certainty.
- Believing a single hedge immunizes them from chaos.
But here’s the kicker: markets aren’t slot machines you can rig. They’re ecosystems. Complex, adaptive, and mostly outside your grip.
Psychologists call this the illusion of control — Ellen Langer’s classic experiments in the 1970s showed how people overvalued dice rolls when they threw them themselves. That same bias lives in traders who “feel” safer when holding the mouse, even if randomness dominates.
So what’s the antidote?
Not nihilism, not throwing up your hands. The solution is discipline:
- Focus on process over outcome. You can control your entries, your position sizes, your stop-losses.
- Accept that randomness dwarfs your personal willpower.
- Reframe: you’re a surfer, not Poseidon. You don’t command waves — you ride them.
That subtle shift matters. Markets humble those who cling to control, but they reward those who learn to let go while holding on to process.
🔗 For further reading, here’s a short primer on the illusion of control bias.
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